Many Believe that Incumbents lose re-election during poor economies or recessions. People like Nate Silver will cite George H. W. Bush in 1992 or the 2008 election. Frank Luntz often refers to the 1976 & 1980 elections. There is a lot of details these buffoons are leaving out.
There has been numerous incumbents to will re-election during recessions.
Thomas Jefferson in 1804, James Madison 1812, james Monroe in 1820, William McKinley in 1900, Teddy Roosevelt in 1904, Calvin Coolidge in 1924 and Harry Truman in 1948.
Most will dismiss everyone on that list because they preceded the polling era (except Truman). But The polling era didn’t start until 1948. 150 years of history is being ignored.
The excuse for excluding Harry Truman is that the recession didn’t begin until November of 1948 (after the election). The problem with this is the GDP in 1945 was -1.0%. In 1946, the GDP was -11.6%. In 1947, the GDP was -1.1%. The economy was bad. I want to point out that the case for using Bush 41 as evidence was that even though the 1990 recession had ended 20 months before the 1992 election….the economy recovered slowly. That’s fine, but Truman had a recession 11 months before re-election and is often excluded from the list of incumbents who faced recessions during re-election. Why? Truman won and it doesn’t fit the narrative.
Most incumbents who lost re-election during a recession were seeking a 3rd, 4th, or 5th term for their party in the white house. throughout American history only 2 incumbents have lost re-election during a recession while seeking the 2nd straight term for their party (which is what Trump is doing). Grover Cleveland in 1888 and Jimmy Carter in 1980 (both Democrats). However, Grover Cleveland still won the popular vote. Jimmy Carter is the only Incumbent to lose both the electoral college and popular vote during a recession while seeking the 2nd straight term for their party in the white house. Jimmy Carter is not the rule. He is the exception to the rule.
There are additional examples where the incumbent party won during a recession. In 1808, James Madison won a 3rd straight term for the Democratic-Republican party during a recession. In 1816, James Monroe won a 5th straight term for the Democratic-Republican party during a recession. In 1836, Martin Van Buren won a 3rd straight term for the Democrat party during the Cholera pandemic and a recession. In 1876, Rutherford B. Hayes won a 3rd straight term for the Republican party during a recession. In 1908, William Howard Taft won a 4th straight term for the Republican party during nationwide riots and a recession. Overall, the incumbent party is 12-11 when facing a recession during re-election.
Bottomline, Incumbents win re-election. It doesn’t matter what Nate Silver or Ryan Gurdusky think….incumbents win.
Chapman's Corner 