The Strategic Manifesto of Baseball Philosophy

Posted on by David Chapman

Introduction

From Ned Hanlon to Bill James, and Branch Rickey in between, the conventional strategy agreed upon to win games has changed, yet the way the game of baseball is won has not changed. A General Manager can build a team is several different ways in order to win. Also, the Manager can use different tactics and strategies to win with the team he has been given, yet the objective remains the same. You have to score more runs than the opposing team to win the game. The goal here is not to state the obvious, yet the goal is to teach what is unknown.

Predicting the unknown does not make it known, it makes it quantifiable. Sabermetrics has attempted to predict future performances of players by factoring past performances. If Joe Random hits 23 home runs in a season, does that mean Joe will hit 23 home runs next season? No! He could hit 24 home runs, 19 home runs, or even 74 home runs. Ned Hanlon had the right idea. Ned did not know if the next two batters would get a hit after the first reached with 1 or 0 outs. What he did was made the odds more in his favor. Runner on first and 1 or 0 outs, next batter lays down a bunt. Ground breaking thing the bunt was, now with a runner on 2nd, Ned only needed one hit from his team to get the run home. Runner on 2nd and 0 outs, the Ned Hanlon Managed Baltimore Orioles (The Yankees Today) would have a field day.

The Father of Conventional Baseball Wisdom, Ned Hanlon utilized the strategy of a team built in a way that the Manager could win with the team. Branch Rickey came along and created tactics that teams are built to win after playing politics. Bill James took all the strategy away from the Manager and greeted them, “best of luck to your tactical abilities.”

You don’t really win with Sabermetrics, you analyze with Sabermetrics.

 

Chapter 1

WAR: What Is It Good For?

Building a team on Wins Above Replacement has its fallacies. In fact you could have great success by building a team with a number of Replacement Level Players. FanGraphs put out an article about the 24 best replacement players in the league. This is 13 of the 24 players on the list and the combined WAR was for these players was +6.1 WAR. The other 11 players accounted for a -5.4 WAR which brought the total to -0.7 WAR. Instead of not ever using replacement players, just don’t use the 11 replacement players that are hurtful to the team. You can find 11 other players that could combine for a +6.1 WAR and create a team +12.2 WAR for a replacement level team. (All stats, except WAR, are career stats; WAR is from 2011-2012)

Matt Downs WAR: 0.8; AVG: .230; HRS: 20; RBI: 66; Games: 254; OBP: .296; POS: 2B, 3B; age: 31 NOTES: Matt Downs is a guy who is a great pinch hitter or for any other use off the bench. It would be smart to give a guy like Mr. Downs a 5 year/$7.2 Million deal. The deal would lock a valuable bench player up for 5 years and he would make $1.44 million a year, salary and security which become a bargain for both sides.

Ryan Sweeny WAR: 0.8; AVG: .276; HRS: 23; RBI: 224; Games: 682; OBP: .333; POS: OF; age: 30 NOTES: Ryan Sweeney is a player who could and should be an everyday player. He has a solid On-Base Percentage and a productive batting average; also he does not hurt you on defense. Because he is so undervalued, one could get a hell of a bargain for an everyday outfielder. Something like 4 years/ $10 million deal. This deal would mean you would get a solid everyday offensive outfielder for 4 years at an annual price of $2.5 million. You don’t get a .276 hitting outfielder for that kind of a deal.

Shelly Duncan WAR: 0.8; AVG: .226; HRS: 43; RBI: 144; Games: 330; OBP: .305; POS: LF, 1B; age: 35 NOTES: Every team needs pop off the bench. Shelly Duncan is obviously a career bench player, yet he is good enough to play his entire career for one team. He would bring defensive versatility off the bench and some much needed pop as well. He is a valuable utility player who should have been lock up with a team long ago. By locking up a player like this, you know year in and year out; your team has solid bench piece. A possible bargain deal for Duncan would be 5 years/ $6.25 Million. This deal would give you a solid bench piece for 5 years for only an annual cost of $1.25 Million.

Jason Bourgeois WAR: 0.7; AVG: .252; HRS: 3; RBI: 34; Games: 270; OBP: .296; POS: OF; age: 33 NOTES: Jason is a player holds great value through his speed and fielding ability. This kind of player is a career bench player, end of story. He is still valuable because he brings speed of the bench late in games and you can keep him in as a defensive sub in the next half inning. I would not lock him up as long because you don’t want to commit salary to someone who has a skill that is nearly obsolete. A 2-3 year deal worth $3.4 Million to $4.1 Million would be feasible to both parties.

Jeremy Hermida WAR: 0.6; AVG: .257; HRS: 65; RBI: 250; Games: 632; OBP: .334; POS: RF; age: 31 NOTES: This is a type of offensive outfielder that if you find a comparable offensive performer you could platoon them a financial commitment of 4 years/ $11.5 Million. This type of player can only be signed if you have the other platoon guy. It would not be a $2.875 Million commitment it would be a $5.75 Million commitment, for you have to take in consideration that it would be 2 players for 1 position over 162 games.

Brent Lillibridge WAR: 0.5; AVG: .205; HRS: 19; RBI: 71; Games: 358; OBP: .267; POS: MIF; age: 31 NOTES: Brent is not a good enough player to be locked up as a franchise bench player.

Miguel Olivo WAR: 0.4; AVG: .240; HRS: 145; RBI: 490; Games: 1124; OBP: .275; POS: C; age: 37 NOTES: Olivo is a player who should have been a franchise catcher for a team for years. At the point in his career, he is not a franchise bench player.

Austin Kearns WAR: 0.4; AVG: .253; HRS: 121; RBI: 494; Games: 1125; OBP: .351; POS: RF; age: 32 (retired) NOTES: I am surprised that Kearns was never an everyday player. I would have locked him up and made him my everyday RF.

Darnell McDonald WAR: 0.3; AVG: .250; HRS: 20; RBI: 83; Games: 331; OBP: .314; POS: OF; age: 34 (retired) NOTES: Darnell was not good enough to be a franchise bench player.

Chris Snyder WAR: 0.3; AVG: .224; HRS: 77; RBI: 298; Games: 715; OBP: .328; POS: C; age: 32 (retired) NOTES: Chris would have been a great franchise bench player. A back-up catcher and some pop off the bench is what you’re getting. Lock him up for 4 or 5 years. Depth is important for a team’s success as well.

Jordan Schafer WAR: 0.3; AVG: .228; HRS: 12; RBI: 85; Games: 463; OBP: .308; POS: CF; age: 28 NOTES: He can play defense and has a serviceable OBP, yet he is still weak with the bat. Because he is young it would be wise to lock him up due to the defensive abilities and he does get on base at a .308 clip, so he is not an automatic out. Be careful though, a 2 to 3 year deal would be smart, but don’t allow him to see free agency again, so if necessary, extend him going into his final year of the contract to avoid an increase in value on a contract year.

Eli Whiteside WAR: 0.1; AVG: .210; HRS: 10; RBI: 45; Games: 216; OBP: .265; POS: C; age: 34 (retired) NOTES: Eli brings only defense, not enough offence for a franchise bench player.

Cesar Izturis WAR: 0.1; AVG: .254; HRS: 17; RBI: 312; Games: 1310; OBP: .293; POS: 2B, SS, 3B; age: 33 (retired) NOTES: Solid utility player and good enough with the bat. A 3 year contract would sustain the infield depth on your roster.

A term I introduced in this Replacement player analysis is a Franchise Bench Player. A Franchise Bench Player is an above average utility player or pinch hitter, but not quite good enough to be an everyday player. Maybe a platoon player who makes 90 starts a year, yet the primary role and purpose for this player to give the club depth on the bench. And the club benefits for this move by knowing for 3 to 5 years that you have solid bench pieces. A 3 to 5 year deal with a bargain for an annual salary is normally what you’ll pay, for they are not undervalued, but they are not given the proper opportunity, which makes them a steal to lock up as a franchise depth player.

Too conclude, By taking a look at players who have low WAR and identifying the players who the league sees as replacement players, you can take advantage of the flaws of the WAR metric and build a very deep bench for an unimaginable price, thus, WAR is good for the strategic counter to the flaws of the WAR metric.

 

Chapter 2

Runs Scored/ Runs Allowed and the W-L Theorem

Runs Scored 2

W%= Runscored2 + Runs allowed2

The win loss theorem, Bill James Claims, will tell how lucky a team was over a season.  A winning team outscores its opposition and the opposite for a losing team. If a winning team allows more runs than they score, that would be considered a lucky season. The 1987 Twins won the World Series and they allowed more runs than they scored. Bill James, are you telling the world that the Twins winning the World Series was something only God could’ve made happen because good teams are not outscored over a course of 162 games, and it’s especially not something a World Series Champion does in a logical world.

In 2007, the W-L Theorem put the Arizona D-Backs at 78-84 with a run differential of 712 runs scored to 732 runs allowed. The Arizona D-Backs were 90-72, the theorem shorted the D-Backs 12 wins.

In 1997, The Theorem has the Giants at 80-82 with a run differential of 784 runs scored to 793 runs allowed. The Giants were 90-72 and won the division.

To add on to run scoring; it is not as important as one would think. There has been 107 teams in the history of the game to score 900 or runs in a season. Those teams over a season had a .582 winning % or a 94-68 record (on 162 game average; the true average is 85-60-1). Yet only 46.7 % of these teams (and that is assuming that 1800s pennant winners would have been modern day playoff bound) made the playoffs. The 46.7% of the teams who did make the playoffs declined 40 points from their regular season winning %. At a .541% they played at the level of an 87 win team, barring the fact that they were 90+ win teams.

 

 

 

 

W-L Theorem

Posted on by David Chapman

Bill James created this to analysis weather a team is as good as the record shows or weather the team is catching a lot of lucky breaks. It does do this, but I believe that it also makes a case for why baseball front offices need not to lean so heavily on stats when constructing a roster. Common sense says that if you allow more runs than you score than you won’t do very well.

The theorem is runs scored squared/ runs scored squared + runs allowed = winning percentage. I found that, first of all, there were 81 teams in history that have allowed more runs than they scored and they on average won 5 more games than the Pythagorean W-L would expect. Some won as many as 14 more games than expected. The 1987 Twins should have been 79-83 but they were 85-77 and won the world series even though they allowed 20 more runs than they scored. I believe that not only is Run statistics overvalued, but predictive stats are extremely overvalued. A lot of these predictive analytic stats heavy unmeasurable aspects to the stats. At some point, when you are winning 14 games more than mathematically expected, it logically would become what the team is and not convenient luck.

Why WAR is not Reliable

Posted on by David Chapman
  • Small sample sizes hurts data and makes stats unreliable: “We estimate CS totals for seasons in which we lack CS data.” This quote from Baseball Reference implies that to compensate for the lack of strong sample sizes stat guys estimate what stat totals would be, tweaking with accurate data.
  • One might say, you can’t have accurate data without reliable sample sizes, but what if the sample sizes already tell the truth?
Name PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
Matt Downs 413 6.1% 20.6% 0.207 0.265 0.241 0.303 0.448 0.327 106 (7.0) (2.0) 0.8
Ryan Sweeney 518 8.7% 17.6% 0.092 0.323 0.263 0.328 0.355 0.302 87 1.6 (2.3) 0.8
Shelley Duncan 511 9.2% 22.5% 0.204 0.257 0.231 0.305 0.435 0.321 104 (6.1) 0.4 0.8
Jason Bourgeois 318 4.4% 8.8% 0.063 0.314 0.287 0.318 0.350 0.297 85 (1.8) 3.0 0.7
Jeremy Hermida 93 10.8% 35.5% 0.159 0.319 0.207 0.301 0.366 0.294 88 4.3 (0.2) 0.6
Brent Lillibridge 425 6.6% 31.3% 0.162 0.297 0.226 0.295 0.388 0.301 85 (5.6) 5.0 0.5
Miguel Olivo 830 3.3% 27.1% 0.162 0.268 0.223 0.248 0.385 0.273 74 (10.6) (3.4) 0.4
Austin Kearns 349 11.5% 26.4% 0.104 0.302 0.222 0.334 0.327 0.303 89 (0.6) (0.3) 0.4
Darnell McDonald 278 9.4% 18.7% 0.159 0.250 0.224 0.301 0.384 0.302 83 2.3 (0.5) 0.3
Chris Snyder 377 13.3% 24.7% 0.129 0.253 0.205 0.320 0.334 0.294 84 (6.3) (4.9) 0.3
Jordan Schafer 698 9.2% 25.2% 0.078 0.306 0.226 0.303 0.304 0.274 69 (6.2) 5.2 0.3
Eli Whiteside 250 7.6% 25.2% 0.112 0.244 0.192 0.261 0.304 0.249 56 (0.6) 0.1 0.1
Cesar Izturis 206 2.4% 11.2% 0.087 0.257 0.235 0.254 0.321 0.251 52 3.4 (0.9) 0.1
Juan Rivera 860 7.1% 12.9% 0.127 0.266 0.252 0.306 0.379 0.300 89 (5.9) (3.9) (0.1)
Russ Canzler 102 4.9% 22.5% 0.125 0.324 0.271 0.304 0.396 0.301 91 (2.3) 0.3 (0.1)
Don Kelly 408 6.9% 13.2% 0.114 0.246 0.227 0.286 0.341 0.280 71 (0.8) 0.4 (0.2)
Ryan Raburn 640 5.3% 26.1% 0.144 0.287 0.226 0.272 0.370 0.281 71 (4.4) 2.0 (0.3)
Yuniesky Betancourt 812 3.1% 10.8% 0.141 0.250 0.245 0.266 0.387 0.281 73 (15.0) (0.4) (0.4)
Ben Francisco 500 9.2% 18.2% 0.131 0.280 0.242 0.317 0.373 0.306 91 (9.4) (1.6) (0.4)
Scott Cousins 150 6.7% 30.0% 0.094 0.209 0.152 0.209 0.246 0.199 17 3.9 0.1 (0.6)
Danny Valencia 769 5.6% 18.2% 0.131 0.264 0.234 0.274 0.365 0.279 72 (8.0) (4.0) (0.6)
Jeff Baker 413 5.1% 22.8% 0.126 0.316 0.254 0.291 0.380 0.292 78 (6.9) (1.0) (0.7)
Bill Hall 213 7.5% 32.9% 0.113 0.311 0.211 0.277 0.325 0.266 65 (11.4) (1.5) (1.4)
Joe Mather 326 6.1% 21.2% 0.110 0.251 0.210 0.260 0.320 0.253 52 (10.2) (1.6) (2.0)

 

  • The argument for this chart is that even a team of the best replacement level players would produce a -0.7 WAR, but the data is manipulated. Matt Downs through Cesar Izturis is a combined +6.1 WAR which accounts for 13 of the 24 players. You can find another 11 that won’t produce a team -0.7 WAR, because you already have 13 players who give you a +6.1 WAR. Not only that, but the stat guys wrote this article, and they were the ones who got to pick the players that go on the chart. If you wanted to you could make a team that has a combined -5.4 WAR with replacement players. All this proves is that baseball stat guys are pro wins above replacement.

 

 

What’s Wrong with Baseball

Posted on by David Chapman

Baseball’s Conventional Wisdom

  • Fielding up the middle/Offensive production along the sides.
  • Summon the lefty to face the lefty.
  • Speed at the top of the line-up.
  • 100 pitches and his day is over.
  • Need multiple lefties in the line-up against right handed pitcher.
  • Baseball is a numbers game.
  • Baseball is a business.
  • Big market teams and salary caps.
  • It’s time to rebuild.
  • Joe Bauman wasn’t major league talent.
  • Giving a Japan pitcher a 175 million dollar contract to play in America is the going rate these days.
  • Fire the 1st year rookie coach after the teams 10th consecutive losing season.
  • Albert Pujols is worth a 10yr/$200m contract at the age of 32.

 

The front office’s superiority complex

  • Head of scouting, president/vice president, and general manager of baseball operations have done nothing anyone else hasn’t done.
  • Even if you have a Ph.D, you should hesitate to call upon other baseball experts or non-expert/fans.
  • Everyone thinks differently. Don’t agree with convention just to keep business moving.

 

Watch and Learn?

  • The game doesn’t changes as much as the “so called” experts clam.
  • The players ability has gotten higher league wide, but the game is the same as it was in the early 1900’s.
  • Watching from age 4 to 18 will be the longest you can watch and learn something.
  • There is replay now. Who cares. That doesn’t change how you play the game.
  • No they don’t prepare different, they prepare for different things.
  • Strategy has changed. Yes, but the way you win has not.
  • This leaves the door open for any strategy to win not just today’s conventions.

 

Historical Analysis of Offense

Posted on by David Chapman

1977 Yankees: only 3 players that played at least 100 games batted .300 or higher. They were 3 in batting with a .281 batting average. This is a good average for a team, but it screams crutch.  Most GMs would take this every year but in my opinion they are settling, for they can’t get it higher. Almost everyone had a .300 or higher OBP which is a manager’s dream. The problem is dominating success by a MLB offence seems to come in similar ways. This is why MoneyBall was invented because the poor teams can’t afford to win in the traditional way. The traditional way means dealing out high priced contracts to good players that are needed to construct a winning line-up.

On another note: what is the modern day winning combination? It will be something that fucks with the leagues pitching so greatly that you could win 130 games easily. But the key is to have a plan of action for two to three seasons later for by than it will be league standard. You just innovate and innovate and innovate.

Historical Baseball Analysis: Perspective on Batting Average

Posted on by David Chapman

All bating average is a series of inconsistent numbers calculated into what we would like to think is a more consistent number. A batting Average could be anything, i mean lets be honest, all a BA is is the average of a players game to game performance. What about averaging out the players fluctuation of their batting average over the season. Actually this is a more logical option because batting “average” in the current state in which it is in now is not an average it is a percentage.
For example, the philosophy quiz I took was out of 25 points. I got 20.5 out of 25.
20.5 / 25 = 82%. Okay, I took 10 at-bats and had 3 hits;
3 / 10 = 30% or .300.
1st day of season you go 1 for 4 which means you have a .250 average.
The 2nd day of the season, you go 0 for 4 or a .000 batting average. 125 avg. after 2gms
The 3rd day you go 4 for 4 or have a 1.000 batting average .416 ba after 3 gms
4th day you got 2 hits in 4 at-bats or a .500 batting average .437 after4 gms

The fluctuation of the average:

Day 1 average is .250 avg.

Day 2 Average is .125 avg. (1for8) – after 2 days: .187 avg. the influx average is higher than the batting average.

Day 3 average is .416 avg. (5for12) – after 3 days: .264 avg. The influx average is significantly lower than the day 3 average.

Day 4 average is .437 avg. (7for16) – after 4 days: .307 avg. The influx average is lower than the average after 4 days.

.250 + .125 + .416 + .437 = 1.228

1.228/4 games = .307 avg.

day to day influx batting says you are a .307 hitter not a .437 hitter
Remember, this is based on the fact that today’s batting average is really just a hitting percentage and it does not even measure the rate of in which one appears at the plate and produces a hit as the end result.

Charles Radbourn Theory

Posted on by David Chapman

In the 1880s, pitching had restrictions on the delivery and pitchers did not throw hard. They also threw a hell of a lot of innings and I believe that if we change our arm delivery than the pitchers can throw everyday. Softball pitchers throw so many more innings than a baseball pitcher does so if pitching is at a premium or you can only get one good starting pitcher, if done anatomically correct than you only need one long guy. That what the Charles Radbourn theory is, radbourn threw 678.2 innings pitched in one season and won 59 games. I know these are very different times and pitching is different but that is actually my point. We should change pitching mechanics to create a work horse.

2017 Elmhurst Scouting Report

Posted on by David Chapman

Elmhurst Pitching

Ben Havel – 42.2 IP|8 App|7 Starts|3-1|1 SV|43H|25BB|42K|5.27ERA|

Last Pitched: 04/14 vs Carthage 7.2 IP – 3 Days rest on 04/17

Daryl Rivera – 35.1 IP|7 App|6 Starts|2-4|40H|23BB|17K|6.37 ERA|

Last Pitched: 04/14 vs Carthage 5.0 IP – 3 Days rest on 04/17

Nick Drago – 32 IP|8 App| 4Starts|1-3|54H|12BB|18K|7.03ERA|

Last Pitched: 04/15 vs IWU 5.2 IP – 2 Days rest on 04/17

  • Did not pitch vs Carthage on 04/14

Nathan Tovell – 5 App.|2 Starts|1-1|20.2 IP|18H|8BB|3.05 ERA|11K|

Last Pitched: 04/15 vs IWU 9.0 IP – 2 Days rest on 04/17

  • Did not pitch vs Carthage on 04/14

Austin MacMillan – 4 App.| 4Starts|25 IP|3-0|33H|7BB|11K|3.96 ERA|

Last Pitched: 04/11 vs Millikin 5.2 IP  – 6 Days rest on 04/17

Alex Kielion – 4 App.|5.2 IP|7H|1BB|1K|1.59 ERA|1-0|

Last Pitched: 04/14 vs Carthage 2.0 IP – 3 Days rest on 04/17

Pitched vs Augustana on 04/08 0.2 IP|2H|5R|0ER|1BB|1K|

Adam Price – 5 App.| 6.0 IP|2H|9BB|5K|3.00 ERA|1-0|1 SV|

Last Pitched: 04/14 vs Carthage 0.2 IP 3 Days rest on 04/17

Pitched vs Augustana on 04/08 2.0 IP|2BB|2K|0H|

Karson Thomas – 4 App.|8.1 IP|10H|1BB|2K|4.32 ERA|1 SV|

Last Pitched: 04/15 vs IWU 2.2 IP 2 Days rest on 04/17

  • Did not pitch vs Carthage on 04/14

Jordan Scrimpsher – 4 App.|1 Start|6.1 IP|11H|10BB|8K|11.37 ERA|

Last Pitched vs Augustana on 04/08 1.2 IP|6H|6R|3ER|2BB|1K|1 WP|1HBP| 6 Days rest 04/17

 

Kevin Johlie – 3 App.|2.0 IP|6H|2BB|1K|13.50 ERA|

Last Pitched: 04/08 vs Augustana 0.0 IP|2H|2R|0ER|2BB| 6 Days rest on 04/17

 Christian Grabowski – 5 App.|0-2|6.2 IP|14H|10BB|8K|24.30 ERA|

Last pitched: 04/14 vs Carthage 2.0 IP 3 Days rest on 04/17

Pitched vs Augustana on 04/08 1.0 IP|1H|1R|1ER|2K|1WP|

Kiko Mari – 7App.|1Start|2-1|14.2 IP|18H|14BB|12K|2 SV|6.75 ERA|

Last Pitched: 04/14 vs Carthage 0.2 IP 3 Days rest on 04/17

Pitched vs Augustana on 04/08 0.1 IP|1H|1R|1ER|2BB|1K|

 

Elmhurst Line-up vs Augustana

Game 1 vs Augustana 16-13 Win

Player                            AB        R         H         RBI     BB       SO       LOB

  1. SS Kressner, Brandon      5          2          2          0          1          0          0
  2. 3B McReynolds, Reagan  5          2          2          1          0          2          2
  3. P/DH Havel, Ben                  6          3          5          5          0          0          0
  • PR     Horwath, Trevor     0          1          0          0          0          0          0
  1. 1B McMillan, Jacob          4          0          0          0          0          1          0
  • 1B     MacMillan, Austin  2          0          0          0          0          1          0
  1. CF Compton, A.J.             4          3          1          0          2          2          1
  2. RF Wilson, Matt              5           2          3          4          1          0          0
  3. LF Compton, Trey            4          1          2          0          0          0          0
  • PR/LF Ott, Christian          2          0          1          1          0          1          1
  1. 2B Berliner, Evan            5           1          1          2          0          1          2
  2. C Wick, James                5          1          2          1          0          1          3

 

 

 

 

 

Game 2 vs Augustana 18-6 Loss

Player                       AB        R         H         RBI     BB       SO       LOB

  1. SS Kressner, Brandon      5          1          2          0          0          0          1
  2. 3B McReynolds, Reagan  4          0          0          0          1          1          4
  3. DH Havel, Ben                  2          1          0          0          2          0          2
  4. 1B MacMillan, Austin      3          1          1          1          1          0          0
  5. CF Compton, A.J.              4         1          3          1          0          0          1
  6. RF Wilson, Matt                 4        1          1          1          0          1          0
  7. LF Compton, Trey            3          0          0          0          1          0          3
  8. 2B Berliner, Evan            3           1          1          1          0          0          0
  • PH     Conroy, Matt          1          0          0          0          0          1          0
  1. C Wick, James                2          0          1          2          1          0          0
  • PH     Pickard, Travis        1          0          1          0          0          0          0

My Line-up vs Elmhurst

  1. SS Nunez
  2. RF Amundsen
  3. DH Doughty
  4. C Ruh
  5. 1B Huber
  6. LF Avella
  7. 2B Wallace
  8. CF Kairis
  9. 3B Mosele
  10. P Dubow

Bullpen

7th inning: N. Refka

8th Inning: Meyer

9th Inning: Weir

Defensive subs

7th Inning: Loeffl to CF; Kairis to LF

9th Inning: Tommy to 1B

PitchHitter: Moraski than Nerger

2017 IWU Scouting Report

Posted on by David Chapman

Pitcher Availability

Banaitis – Last Pitched 04/22 7.0 IP 1 Day rest on 04/23

  1. Henry – Last Pitched 04/22 2.0 IP; 4.1 IP on 04/15 1 Day rest on 04/23

*RHP Brune – Last pitched 04/19 6.0 IP; 1.0 IP on 04/15 4 Days rest on 04/23

I bet he will go for IWU

*RHP Huskisson – Last pitched 04/19 1.0 IP; 2.2 IP on 04/15 4 Days rest on 04/23

I bet he will start. He has made 4 starts this year. Yet only 3.2 IP in 2 relief App. Since 04/15

Vlk – Last pitched 04/19 1.0 IP 4 Days rest on 04/23

Coonan – Last pitched vs NCC game 2 on 04/22

O’Brien – last pitched 04/15 0.2 IP 8 Days rest 04/23

Becker – Last pitched 04/15 0.1 IP 8 Days rest 04/23

Sanders – last pitched 04/15 0.1 IP 8 Days rest 04/23

Taylor – Last pitched 04/15 0.2 IP 8 Days rest 04/23

Pitching Slits lefty/righty

Banaitis vs lefties 3for18 (.167avg) vs righties 25for102(.245avg)

Brune vs Lefties 5for11(.455avg) vs Righties 26for90(.289avg)

Coonan vs Lefties 10for36(.278avg) vs Righties 43for149(.289avg)

Henry vs Lefties 7for9(.778avg) vs Righties 20for70(.286avg)

Huskisson vs Lefties 5for18(.278avg) vs Righties 12for40(.300avg)

Sanders vs Lefties 6for12(.500avg) vs Righties 4for19(.211avg)

Taylor vs lefties 0for3 vs Righties 3for14(.214avg)

Vlk vs Lefties 9for22(.409avg) vs Righties 32for91(.352avg)

O’Brien vs Lefties 4for12(.333avg) vs Righties 15for42(.357avg)

IWU vs Lefties 62for180(.340avg) vs Righties 247for781(.316avg)

 

My  Line-up

  1. LF Kairis
  2. CF Loeffl – last 6 games 11for20(.550avg)| .625OB%|4R|2RBI|4BB|1SB|
  3. RF Amundsen – in the 2 spot 7for26(.269avg)| in the 3 spot 38for99(.383avg)
  4. DH Doughty
  5. C Ruh
  6. 1B Moraski – last 6 game 4for20(.200avg)|.272OB%|3R|4RBI|2BB|
  7. 2B Wallace
  8. SS Nunez
  9. 3B Mosele

GM 1 vs NCC 7-0 win

Player                         AB        R         H         RBI     BB       SO       LOB

  1. 3B Stewart, Jake              3           3          1          1          0          0          0
  2. CF Figus, Nick                 5           0          2          4          0          0          0
  3. 1B Shea, Garrett               4          0          1          1          1          2          2
  4. C Mollo, Pat                 4            0          0          1          1          0          0
  5. LF Bosco, John                4           0          0          0          0          2          4
  6. SS Juskiewicz, Jarrod       5          0          0          0          0          1          1
  7. 2B Cavalieri, Gino            3          2          0          0          1          1          0
  8. DH Broadbear, Jonathan   1          1          0          0          1          0          0
  9. RF Plecki, Mike               3           1          1          0          0          0          1

GM 3 vs Elmhurst 3-1 win

Player                     AB       R         H         RBI     BB       SO       LOB

  1. 3B Stewart, Jake              4           1          1          0          0          0          0
  2. CF Figus, Nick                 4           0          2          0          1          1          3
  3. 1B Shea, Garrett             5            0          1          0          0          1          0
  4. C Mollo, Pat                  4           1          1          1          0          0          3
  5. LF Bosco, John                 4          0          2          0          0          0          0
  6. SS Juskiewicz, Jarrod       4          1          1          0          1          2          2
  7. DH Broadbear, Jonathan   3          0          2          0          0          0          0
  8. 2B Cavalieri, Gino            4          0          3          1          1          0          2
  9. RF Plecki, Mike               4           0          1          0          0          0          3

 

 

Gm 1 vs Elmhurst 14-5 win

Player                     AB         R         H         RBI     BB       SO       LOB

  1. 3B Stewart, Jake               5          2          0          0          1          0          2
  2. LF Bosco, John                   6        1          1          0          0          1          4
  3. 1B Shea, Garrett                4         2          3          2          1          0          0
  4. C Mollo, Pat                  6           3          2          1          0          0          1
  5. DH Juskiewicz, Jarrod       4          0          2          3          0          0          0
  6. RF Houghton, Jacob         2          1          0          1          0          0          3
  7. SS Broadbear, Jonathan   4          2          2          0          0          0          2
  8. 2B Cavalieri, Gino            5          2          2          1          0          0          0
  9. CF Figus, Nick                 5           0          4          3          0          0          0

Berek – He should never face a righty again in his life. Righties are hitting .302avg (26for86) off of him. On the other hand, he could be used as a Lefty specialist out of the bullpen. Lefties are hitting .143avg (1for7) off of him. He should also never come out of the bullpen with runners on base. Batters are hitting .340avg (17for50) against him when runners are on base. When the bases are empty, hitters are .233avg (10for43) against him. The best way to use Berek in my opinion is to bring him in when there is back to back lefties to start an inning. Once you get to the righty, he is done.

IWU as team: .316avg| .406OB%|  8.4 Runs/gm| 11.3 hits/gm

Pitching: 5.56 ERA |11.2 hits allowed/gm|6.28 runs/gm|5.32ER/gm

Baserunning: 8 Caught stealing/20 stolen base attempts (40%) 60% success rate for stolen bases

Figus has 5 SB/ 8SBA

Houghton has 6SB/6SBA

Stewart has 10SB/11SBA

Mollo 8for18 in throwing out base stealers(44%)

2017 North Central College Scouting Report

Posted on by David Chapman

Augustana Pitchers vs North Central
Morgenstern 4App|3 Start|19.1 IP|21H|12R|11ER|9K|1HBP|10BB|2WP|5.18ERA|
N. Refka 2App|3.1 IP|5H|2R|2ER|2BB|1K|5.81ERA|
• vs Lefties:1for14(.071avg) vs Righties 10for29(.345avg)
Weir 1App|4.0 IP|1H|2R|1ER|3BB|4K|2.25ERA|
• vs Lefties 0for11(.091avg) vs Righties 13for44(.295avg)
Malone 1App|1.0 IP|4H|4R|4ER|1BB|1K|36.00 ERA|
Rotunno 1App|0.1 IP|1H|1BB|0.00 ERA|
Augustana Hitters vs North Central
Ruh 7GP|5for26(.192avg)|1BB|3RBI|4K|1R|.222OB%|14.8% K Rate|
Loeffl 5GP|2for6(.333avg)|3RBI|3R|.333OB%|
• I know there is a concern about Justin Joy’s defense, but Loeffl is not giving us enough to say well at least he is good defensively. Loeffl’s ABs has not only been brutal, but he is not even making productive outs. If Joy is going to hit .300+ constantly, we should play him more often.
Doughty 4GP|8for15(.533avg)|2R|5RBI|1BB|.563OB%|
Amundsen 2GP|3for4(.750avg)|1R|1RBI|.750OB%|
Kairis 4GP|6for18(.333avg)|2RBI|5R|1K|2BB|.400OB%|5% K Rate|
Wallace 3GP|4for13(.307avg)|3RBI|2K|.307OB%|15.4% K Rate|
Mosele 3GP|3for8(.375avg)|1R|2K|.375OB%|25% K Rate|
North Central Pitching
Anthony Serafini – 10App.|7.1 IP|1.23 ERA|5H|3R|1ER|6BB|2K|7.36 BB/gm
– CCIW Stats: 4App.|3.38ERA|2.2 IP|3H|3R|1ER|2BB|0K|
1. Have to be patient with this guy. He sees the mound a lot, yet can’t seem to find the catcher’s glove.
2. Base stealers are 0for1 when running while he is on the mound
Nick Rogalski – 9 App.|6.94 ERA|11.2 IP|22H|13R|9ER|5BB|3K|3.86BB/gm
– CCIW Stats: 4 APP.|6.0 IP|1.50 ERA|1-0|4H|1R|1ER|1K|
1. Base stealers are 1for1 when running while he is on the mound.
Brett Pyburn – 3 App.| 2Starts|0-2|1.84ERA|14.2 IP|12H|6R|3ER|6BB|6K|
– CCIW Stats: 1App.|7.0 IP|0-1|5H|2R|0ER|1BB|3K|
1. 1 Wild Pitch| 2 Sac Hits allowed|
2. Base Stealers are 4for5 when running while he is on the mound
I say run on the guy. Hit-n-run…straight steal…Try and bunt
Team ERA: 5.71ERA
• In CCIW Play: 2.75ERA
Team runs per/gm:7.59
• In CCIW Play: 4.25
NCC is allowing 1.88 unearned runs/gm (0.74 runs.gm more than us).
• In CCIW play: 1.5 Unearned run/gm…get guys on base
NCC commits 2.3 Errors a game – 81.7% of those errors score
• In CCIW play: 2.25 errors/gm – 66.7% of those errors score
Chris Hill is 5for10 (50%) in throwing out runners. He is 1for2(50%) in CCIW play. He also has 5 passed balls & the Pitching staff combines for 7 Wild Pitches & 10 HBP…we can run on these guys.
1. Carter is 6for8 in stolen base attempts
2. Kairis is 3for3 in stolen base attempts
3. We have only ran twice in CCIW… 1for2
Polezoes – 2 wild pitches| 2 sac fly allowed| 1 Sac Hit allowed| 5BB|
Pyburn – 1 wild pitch| 2 sac hits allowed|6 BB|
Teams are hitting .312avg vs NCC, but .234avg in CCIW play.
Pitching staff has allowed 9 sac hits…their opp. Only 6 sac hits.
Last 4 CCIW line-up
Line-up vs Elmhurst 9-1 Win
Player AB R H RBI BB SO LOB
1. CF Quade, Jeremy 4 2 1 0 1 1 1
2. RF Fong, Sing 1 1 0 1 1 0 0
3. 3B Mateja, Michael 4 1 1 0 1 0 2
4. C Hill, Chris 4 1 1 1 1 0 3
5. 1B Sotiros, Nick 5 1 3 3 0 0 0
6. DH Carmody, John 3 1 0 0 2 1 1
7. LF Noesen, Mike 2 1 1 0 3 0 1
8. 2B Nelson, Adam 3 0 1 1 1 1 3
9. SS Zebrauskas, Robert 4 1 1 1 0 1 0
Pitching vs North Central
IP H R ER BB SO
Polezoes, Austin 7.0 3 1 1 2 7
Serafini, Anthony 1.0 0 0 0 1 0
Rogalski, Nick 1.0 0 0 0 0 0
Line-up vs Carthage 11-6 Win
Player AB R H RBI BB SO LOB
1. CF Quade, Jeremy 5 2 3 1 1 1 1
2. RF Fong, Sing 5 3 2 1 1 2 2
3. 3B Mateja, Michael 2 2 1 0 3 0 0
4. C Hill, Chris 4 1 2 1 1 0 0
5. 1B Sotiros, Nick 5 1 2 1 0 2 0
6. DH Carmody, John 1 0 0 0 0 1 2
7. LF Noesen, Mike 4 0 2 2 1 0 3
8. 2B Nelson, Adam 3 1 0 1 1 3 3
9. SS Zebrauskas, Robert 3 1 1 0 1 1 1

Pitching vs Carthage
IP H R ER BB SO
1. Kons, Blake 0.1 1 4 4 2 0
2. Hoh, Russell 6.0 5 1 1 1 6
3. Serafini, Anthony 0.1 0 0 0 1 0
4. Tevyaw, Lucas 0.1 0 0 0 0 0
5. Blunk, Evan 1.0 1 0 0 0 0
6. Rogalski, Nick 1.0 2 1 1 0 0
Line-up vs North Park (GM1) 2-1 Loss
Player AB R H RBI BB SO LOB
1. CF Quade, Jeremy 4 0 0 0 0 0 2
2. RF Fong, Sing 4 0 0 0 0 1 0
3. 3B Mateja, Michael 4 1 2 0 0 0 0
4. C Hill, Chris 4 0 1 0 0 1 0
5. 1B Sotiros, Nick 4 0 2 0 0 1 2
6. DH Scott, Ryan 3 0 0 0 0 1 0
7. LF Noesen, Mike 3 0 1 0 1 1 1
8. 2B Nelson, Adam 2 0 1 0 1 0 0
9. SS Zebrauskas, Robert 3 0 2 0 0 0 0
Pitching vs North Park
IP H R ER BB SO
1. Pyburn, Brett 7.0 5 2 0 1 3
2. Serafini, Anthony 1.0 1 0 0 0 0
3. Tevyaw, Lucas 0.1 1 0 0 0 0
4. Rogalski, Nick 0.2 0 0 0 0 0
Line-up vs North Park (GM2) 13-8 Win
Player AB R H RBI BB SO LOB
1. CF Quade, Jeremy 5 2 1 0 1 1 3
2. 3B Mateja, Michael 1 3 1 2 3 0 0
3. 1B Sotiros, Nick 5 2 3 2 0 1 0
4. C Hill, Chris 5 2 2 4 0 0 1
5. DH Carmody, John 5 1 3 1 0 0 1
6. RF/LF Weilbacher, Colin 4 1 2 2 0 0 0
7. SS Sutherland, Matt 5 1 2 1 0 0 1
8. 2B Nelson, Adam 4 1 0 0 1 1 0
9. LF Noesen, Mike 3 0 0 0 1 1 3
North Central Pitching vs North Park
IP H R ER BB SO
1. Anderson, Nick 5.1 6 3 3 2 2
2. Serafini, Anthony 0.1 2 3 1 0 0
3. Blunk, Evan 0.0 3 2 0 1 0
4. Rogalski, Nick 3.1 2 0 0 0 1
My Line-up for GM1 vs North Central
1. SS Nunez
2. LF Kairis
3. RF Amundsen
4. C Ruh
5. 1B Moraski
6. DH Doughty
7. 2B Wallace
8. CF Joy – play game 1 with an offensive approach because Stern should pitch well & all we’ll need to do is score runs.
9. 3B Mosle
10. P Morgenstern
My line-up for GM2 vs North Central
1. SS Nunez
2. LF Kairis
3. RF Amundsen
4. C Ruh
5. 1B Moraski
6. DH Doughty
7. 2B Wallace
8. CF Loeffl – Go defense in gm2 in order to help out Refka
9. 3B Mosle
10. P C. Refka